When climate risk is discussed, attention usually turns to flooding, storms and coastal erosion. These risks are well studied, widely modelled and increasingly built into financial decision‑making.
But dry perils such as heat stress, drought and wildfire susceptibility are still flying under the radar even though their impact is increasingly prominent.
In a recent episode of the GARP Climate Risk Podcast, Map Impact founder and CEO Richard Flemmings joined host Joe Paisley to discuss why these risks have been underestimated, and why understanding the landscape itself is critical to managing them.
About GARP and the Climate Risk Podcast
The podcast is produced by the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP), an international organisation representing risk practitioners across banking, insurance, asset management and the wider financial sector. Through research, education and professional certification, GARP plays a key role in helping financial institutions understand and respond to emerging risks, including climate and sustainability‑related challenges.
Why Heat and Wildfire Risk Have Been Overlooked
In the UK, perception has played a major role in shaping climate conversations. Heatwaves are often reported with photos of beaches and ice creams, while flooding dominates headlines through visible, immediate damage. Yet the reality is changing quickly.
The UK now has a recognised wildfire season. Recent years have seen dramatic increases in fires, driven by drier springs and vegetation growth following wetter winters. Crucially, many of these fires occur at the edge of towns and cities, placing pressure on emergency services and creating indirect risks that rarely show up in traditional models.
These dry perils aren’t theoretical. They’re already affecting communities, infrastructure and housing providers and they’re only set to grow.
Starting With the Landscape, Not the Model
Map Impact takes a deliberately bottom‑up approach to climate risk. Instead of starting with broad atmospheric projections alone, analysis begins with the physical landscape: land cover, vegetation, and biodiversity.
The Map Impact approach grew out of early work supporting Biodiversity Net Gain reporting in England, where our nationwide habitat and biodiversity map BiodiversityView was created. That detailed understanding of land use now underpins climate hazard assessment.
By focusing on hazard data, rather than trying to model full financial impacts, Map Impact provides transparent inputs that financial institutions and asset owners can integrate directly into their own risk frameworks.
What This Means for Housing
Housing associations were among the first organisations to see the value of this approach. Managing millions of homes, many built decades ago, they’re already facing the challenge of overheating during heatwaves, especially in dense urban areas.
In one early case, a housing provider was told by a standard model that heat stress wasn’t a concern. Tenant experience told a very different story. Using land‑led, high‑resolution analysis, Map Impact identified real heat stress exposure across the portfolio, enabling the association to prioritise retrofit programmes and focus investment where it would have the greatest impact.
This kind of insight allows providers to balance competing demands: keeping homes warm in winter while reducing overheating risk in increasingly hot summers.
Nature‑Based Solutions and Joined‑Up Thinking
A recurring theme in the podcast conversation was the role of nature‑based solutions. Greening urban spaces, reducing hard surfaces, and restoring landscapes can significantly reduce heat accumulation and wildfire susceptibility. But the real impact comes when these actions are coordinated at scale.
Through work on Local Nature Recovery Strategies, Map Impact has seen how housing providers, local authorities and financiers can align objectives, even within the UK’s fragmented land ownership system.
There are challenges, but the opportunity to link climate resilience, biodiversity recovery and finance is growing.
Looking Ahead
Dry perils have been underestimated for too long. As regulation tightens and climate impacts intensify, understanding heat, wildfire and drought risk at a local, landscape‑level will be essential.
As Richard noted in the podcast, the key for organisations is clarity: knowing what climate data shows, what it doesn’t, and how to use it responsibly.
By starting with the land itself, it becomes possible not just to assess risk but to plan meaningful adaptation and build resilience where it matters most.
You can listen to the podcast “The Case for Adaptation: Heat Stress and the Built Environment” below, or here.
